Aqylon Nexus Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
7,819.58
1 Week
3,653.82
1 Month
3,013.35
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2001 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1797 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7180 | 0.31 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1797 | 0.00 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2539 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7461 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.808
Half-life:
3 days
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