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V-Lab

Aqualis ASA ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

20,452.25

decreased by 884.53

1 Week

24,711.10

increased by 3,374.32

1 Month

27,099.82

increased by 5,763.04

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:24 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Aqualis ASA ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 13, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026
Stationarity Enforced
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

106
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5950
0.05
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6500
2.45**
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-0.02
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.5949
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

1.0000
0.05
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days