V-Lab
Asahimas Flat Glass Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
1,723.21
1 Week
1,923.86
1 Month
3,416.81
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 02:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 1, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 254 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1495 | 0.23 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9097 | 217.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1239 | -0.10 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 6.8172 | 0.42 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.3163 | 0.25 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
254 days
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