V-Lab
Shyft Group Inc/The Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 1st, 2026
1 Day
4,740.84
decreased by 132.50
1 Week
5,421.36
increased by 548.02
1 Month
5,812.35
increased by 939.01
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 09:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.15 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0718 | 3.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9139 | 132.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0286 | 0.73 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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