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Shyft Group Inc/The ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 1st, 2026
1 Day
4,821.78
1 Week
5,542.20
1 Month
5,962.37
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 09:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1023 | 18.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9038 | 176.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1023 | -2.49** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0079 | 0.46 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.36 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9282 | 116.89*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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