Chien Shing Harbour Service ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026
1 Day
7,024.58
1 Week
3,579.99
1 Month
3,036.65
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 6, 2018 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1797 | 1.76* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8362 | 120.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1797 | -2.32** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3607 | 4.94*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9912 | 127.27*** |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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