Skip to main content
V-Lab

Chien Shing Harbour Service Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026

1 Day

4,854.53

increased by 1,668.65

1 Week

3,052.84

decreased by 133.04

1 Month

2,795.24

decreased by 390.64

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Chien Shing Harbour Service ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 6, 2018 to Jul 3, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 123% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
4.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0893
19.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8557
272.85***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1102
8.67***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days