V-Lab
Taiwan Auto-Design Co Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
4,632.21
increased by 524.80
1 Week
4,290.55
increased by 183.14
1 Month
3,555.75
decreased by 551.66
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2021 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.46 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0477 | 2.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9661 | 1,059.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0276 | -1.14 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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