V-Lab
GFI Co Ltd/Korea ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
258.16
1 Week
424.84
1 Month
326.03
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 22, 2024 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4363 | 73.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6181 | 155.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1273 | -17.12*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 105.3564 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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