Sinops Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
6,078.46
1 Week
6,151.71
1 Month
4,479.19
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 01:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 25, 2018 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 110 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1669 | 0.95 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8139 | 189.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0258 | 0.07 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 1.08 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0145 | 1.37 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9855 | 241.84*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
110 days
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