V-Lab
Zhongyu Energy Holdings Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
4,530.05
1 Week
3,235.05
1 Month
2,640.04
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 11, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 37% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 2.46** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0688 | 10.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9186 | 362.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0251 | 2.39** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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