V-Lab
Choei Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 27th, 2026
1 Day
5,462.67
1 Week
4,789.42
1 Month
5,255.55
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 07:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 24, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 256 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0460 | 21.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9551 | 385.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0076 | -4.99*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2,362.2001 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
256 days
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