V-Lab
Choei Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
6,069.95
1 Week
5,380.63
1 Month
5,492.65
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 06:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 24, 2021 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 323 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0462 | 21.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9560 | 397.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0086 | -5.66*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2,358.9090 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
323 days
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