V-Lab
Choei Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 27th, 2026
1 Day
5,312.56
increased by 38.69
1 Week
4,662.62
decreased by 611.25
1 Month
5,099.93
decreased by 173.94
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 07:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 24, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 3.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0446 | 9.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9564 | 330.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0020 | -0.25 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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