V-Lab
Taiyo Kisokogyo Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
5,702.20
increased by 1,914.67
1 Week
4,503.11
increased by 715.58
1 Month
4,851.86
increased by 1,064.33
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1998 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.37 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0552 | 4.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9274 | 121.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0348 | 1.58 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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