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V-Lab
V-Lab

Euro GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

4.08%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

4.11%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

4.23%

increased by 0.11%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 01:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Euro GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 278 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~278 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0007
3.13***
αARCH0.0270
9.14***
βGARCH0.9705
305.66***

0.998

Persistence

278d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0007
3.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0270
9.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9705
305.66***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

278 days