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Warehouses De Pauw CVA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

18.94%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

18.94%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

18.94%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:12 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Warehouses De Pauw CVA GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 10, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-lifev = 9.11 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4228
0.40
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9314
0.34
νDF9.1070
0.12

0.931

Persistence

10d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4228
0.40
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9314
0.34
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.1070
0.12

Persistence:

0.931

Half-life:

10 days