V-Lab
Warehouses De Pauw CVA Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
19.57%
increased by 3.72%
1 Week
20.38%
increased by 4.53%
1 Month
22.62%
increased by 6.77%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.
μ
AMEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1367 | 1.26 |
| αARCH | 0.3224 | 1.15 |
| βGARCH | 0.7639 | 10.54*** |
| γleverage | -0.2644 | -0.82 |
0.954
Persistence15d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1367 | 1.26 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3224 | 1.15 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7639 | 10.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2644 | -0.82 |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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