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V-Lab

Warehouses De Pauw CVA Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

14.19%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

14.19%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

14.19%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:12 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Warehouses De Pauw CVA SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 10, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1580
2.33**
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8456
0.18
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-2.2932
-0.39

0.846

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1580
2.33**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8456
0.18
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-2.2932
-0.39

Persistence:

0.846

Half-life:

4 days