V-Lab
Warehouses De Pauw CVA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
15.68%
1 Week
19.28%
1 Month
22.01%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.5000 | 30.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| γleverage | -0.5000 | -29.09*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0220 | 3.61*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.3142 | 77.69*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.6858 | 37.87*** |
0.250
Persistence1d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5000 | 30.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -29.09*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0220 | 3.61*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3142 | 77.69*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6858 | 37.87*** |
Persistence:
0.250
Half-life:
1 days
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