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V-Lab

Warehouses De Pauw CVA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

15.68%

increased by 1.39%

1 Week

19.28%

increased by 4.99%

1 Month

22.01%

increased by 7.72%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:12 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Warehouses De Pauw CVA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 10, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow41
αARCH0.5000
30.82***
βGARCH0.0000
0.00
γleverage-0.5000
-29.09***
λ₁tau intercept0.0220
3.61***
λ₂forecast adj.0.3142
77.69***
λ₃tau persistence0.6858
37.87***

0.250

Persistence

1d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5000
30.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-29.09***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0220
3.61***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3142
77.69***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6858
37.87***

Persistence:

0.250

Half-life:

1 days