V-Lab
BGI Group Joint Stock Co GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
37.08%
decreased by 1.02%
1 Week
38.63%
increased by 0.53%
1 Month
43.31%
increased by 5.21%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 04:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2011 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 22-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4080 | 3.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.0853 | 3.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8765 | 53.55*** |
| γleverage | 0.0147 | 0.32 |
0.969
Persistence22d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4080 | 3.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0853 | 3.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8765 | 53.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0147 | 0.32 |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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