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V-Lab

US Dollar to Colombian Peso Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

14.32%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Week

14.64%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Month

15.62%

increased by 0.60%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Colombian Peso SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 18, 1994 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.4825
4.14***
αARCH0.1098
10.14***
βGARCH0.8529
66.59***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0426
0.89
γ2-0.0762
-1.07
γ3-0.0294
-0.59
γ40.1955
4.44***
γ5-0.3016
-9.93***
γ60.3390
10.55***
γ7-0.2616
-6.81***
γ80.1282
3.27***
γ9-0.0739
-2.04**
γ100.0817
1.66*

0.963

Persistence

18d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4825
4.14***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1098
10.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8529
66.59***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0426
0.89
γ2-0.0762
-1.07
γ3-0.0294
-0.59
γ40.1955
4.44***
γ5-0.3016
-9.93***
γ60.3390
10.55***
γ7-0.2616
-6.81***
γ80.1282
3.27***
γ9-0.0739
-2.04**
γ100.0817
1.66*

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

18 days