V-Lab
US Dollar to Colombian Peso Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
14.32%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Week
14.64%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Month
15.62%
increased by 0.60%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 18, 1994 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4825 | 4.14*** |
| αARCH | 0.1098 | 10.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8529 | 66.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0426 | 0.89 |
| γ2 | -0.0762 | -1.07 |
| γ3 | -0.0294 | -0.59 |
| γ4 | 0.1955 | 4.44*** |
| γ5 | -0.3016 | -9.93*** |
| γ6 | 0.3390 | 10.55*** |
| γ7 | -0.2616 | -6.81*** |
| γ8 | 0.1282 | 3.27*** |
| γ9 | -0.0739 | -2.04** |
| γ10 | 0.0817 | 1.66* |
0.963
Persistence18d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4825 | 4.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1098 | 10.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8529 | 66.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0426 | 0.89 |
| γ2 | -0.0762 | -1.07 |
| γ3 | -0.0294 | -0.59 |
| γ4 | 0.1955 | 4.44*** |
| γ5 | -0.3016 | -9.93*** |
| γ6 | 0.3390 | 10.55*** |
| γ7 | -0.2616 | -6.81*** |
| γ8 | 0.1282 | 3.27*** |
| γ9 | -0.0739 | -2.04** |
| γ10 | 0.0817 | 1.66* |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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