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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

47.73%

increased by 0.30%

1 Week

47.53%

increased by 0.10%

1 Month

46.80%

decreased by 0.63%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0514
25.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0751
32.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9151
425.62***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

71 days