S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
47.73%
increased by 0.30%
1 Week
47.53%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
46.80%
decreased by 0.63%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0514 | 25.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0751 | 32.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9151 | 425.62*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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