V-Lab
S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
14.48%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
14.56%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Month
14.85%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 100 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0103 | 14.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0461 | 34.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9470 | 598.22*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
100 days
Other S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Spot Index Analyses
Other GARCH Analyses on Commodities