V-Lab
S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
13.31%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
13.41%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
13.80%
increased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0104 | 14.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0463 | 34.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9467 | 597.30*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
99 days
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