V-Lab
S&P GSCI Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
18.94%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
19.03%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Month
19.36%
decreased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 176 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~176 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0121 | 5.12*** |
| αARCH | 0.0704 | 8.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9257 | 127.26*** |
0.996
Persistence176d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0121 | 5.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0704 | 8.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9257 | 127.26*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
176 days
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