V-Lab
Global X Nasdaq-100 Cove ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
24.24%
decreased by 1.09%
1 Week
23.97%
decreased by 1.36%
1 Month
23.06%
decreased by 2.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2011 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.21 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0248 | 18.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0780 | 14.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9119 | 223.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5877 | 8.01*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2129 | 26.82*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
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