V-Lab
Global X Nasdaq-100 Cove ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
27.55%
decreased by 1.22%
1 Week
27.34%
decreased by 1.43%
1 Month
26.60%
decreased by 2.17%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2011 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 33 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0068 | 5.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0877 | 7.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8916 | 67.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0052 | 1.01 |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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