V-Lab
Ibotta Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
62.02%
increased by 1.79%
1 Week
63.87%
increased by 3.64%
1 Month
67.33%
increased by 7.10%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:13 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 18, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 3.11 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 19.5595 | 0.51 |
| αARCH | 0.0876 | 0.77 |
| βGARCH | 0.8783 | 3.60*** |
| νDF | 3.1094 | 0.50 |
0.878
Persistence5d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 19.5595 | 0.51 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0876 | 0.77 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8783 | 3.60*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1094 | 0.50 |
Persistence:
0.878
Half-life:
5 days
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