Leverage Shares 2X Long ECHO Daily ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
120.39%
1 Week
119.55%
1 Month
117.78%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 149% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.82 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5456 | 1.65* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1449 | 5.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7807 | 20.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5051 | -6.91*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8219 | 3.07*** |
Persistence:
0.894
Half-life:
6 days
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