How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	121
αARCH	0.3029	5.55***
βGARCH	0.7187	20.09***
γleverage	-0.3029	-2.47**
λ₁tau intercept	0.0000	0.00
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0043	0.50
λ₃tau persistence	0.9927	98.02***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	121
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.3029	5.55***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.7187	20.09***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.3029	-2.47**
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.0000	0.00
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0043	0.50
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.9927	98.02***

V-Lab

Tera Finansal Yatirimlar Holding A.S. ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Tera Finansal Yatirimlar Holding A.S. Analyses