V-Lab
Tera Finansal Yatirimlar Holding A.S. Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
13,362.01
1 Week
2,748.68
1 Month
656.53
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 1, 2012 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 138% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 1.30 |
| αARCH | 0.1074 | 3.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8182 | 26.11*** |
| γleverage | 0.1486 | 2.44** |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 1.30 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1074 | 3.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8182 | 26.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1486 | 2.44** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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