Grupo Traxion S A B De Cv ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026
1 Day
13,786.46
1 Week
5,004.84
1 Month
2,249.42
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 29, 2017 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.1571 | 6.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7494 | 17.81*** |
| γleverage | -0.1571 | -4.52*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 4.7961 | 1.07 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0483 | 1.76* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9468 | 31.08*** |
0.828
Persistence4d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1571 | 6.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7494 | 17.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1571 | -4.52*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 4.7961 | 1.07 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0483 | 1.76* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9468 | 31.08*** |
Persistence:
0.828
Half-life:
4 days
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