Pramara Promotions Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
4,181.51
1 Week
4,578.89
1 Month
5,353.53
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 13, 2023 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3589 | 2.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6498 | 78.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3589 | -1.36 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 16.46*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3549 | 26.68*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5986 | 4.54*** |
Persistence:
0.829
Half-life:
4 days
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