V-Lab
Oesterreichische Post AG Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
5,369.91
increased by 220.33
1 Week
5,234.42
increased by 84.84
1 Month
6,415.77
increased by 1,266.19
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 05:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 2006 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.54 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0435 | 4.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9459 | 194.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0211 | 1.10 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
Other Oesterreichische Post AG Analyses
Other Asymmetric ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities