How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	26
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0900	9.16***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.8315	33.19***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.0900	-3.10***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	10.0000	1.38
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0310	4.11***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.9665	109.98***

V-Lab

Oesterreichische Post AG ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Oesterreichische Post AG Analyses