V-Lab
Naqi Water Company Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026
1 Day
6,002.71
decreased by 441.23
1 Week
6,488.49
increased by 44.55
1 Month
4,944.44
decreased by 1,499.50
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 15, 2022 to Jul 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 168 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 206% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 2.01** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0663 | 5.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8613 | 167.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1364 | 7.70*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
168 days
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