Moonpig Group PLC ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
5,082.78
1 Week
5,212.35
1 Month
4,946.34
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 2, 2021 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0861 | 2.13** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8762 | 48.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0861 | -2.00** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.8875 | 1.17 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9985 | 203.15*** |
Persistence:
0.919
Half-life:
8 days
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