V-Lab
Kofola Ceskoslovensko AS Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
4,447.69
decreased by 211.84
1 Week
4,619.81
decreased by 39.72
1 Month
4,505.26
decreased by 154.27
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2015 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.44 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0481 | 10.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9535 | 561.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0032 | -0.39 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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