How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	41
αARCH	0.2163	10.02***
βGARCH	0.7383	32.56***
γleverage	0.0803	2.93***
λ₁tau intercept	0.1672	0.00
λ₂forecast adj.	0.2140	1.56
λ₃tau persistence	0.7860	5.73***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	41
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.2163	10.02***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.7383	32.56***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.0803	2.93***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.1672	0.00
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.2140	1.56
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.7860	5.73***

V-Lab

Janana DE Malucho Textile ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Janana DE Malucho Textile Analyses