Janana DE Malucho Textile Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
8,630.94
1 Week
6,049.59
1 Month
10,174.76
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 12, 2012 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.01 |
| αARCH | 0.0897 | 4.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8972 | 81.93*** |
| γleverage | 0.0263 | 0.69 |
1.000
Persistence693147d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0897 | 4.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8972 | 81.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0263 | 0.69 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
Other Janana DE Malucho Textile Analyses
Other Asymmetric ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities