V-Lab
LB Foster Co Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
5,785.98
1 Week
5,463.16
1 Month
5,260.96
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 26% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.76 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0387 | 11.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9564 | 661.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0099 | 2.48** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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