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FMB Capital Holdings PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

8,871.50

increased by 918.03

1 Week

8,223.72

increased by 270.25

1 Month

8,689.98

increased by 736.51

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 11:58 PM UTC

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graph of FMB Capital Holdings PLC ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 22, 2017 to Sep 25, 2026
Illiquid Asset

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.05
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9903
92.11***
γleverage0.0194
0.26

1.000

Persistence

1386294d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.05
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9903
92.11***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0194
0.26

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days