V-Lab
Cryogenic OGS Limited Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
4,161.23
increased by 127.97
1 Week
4,421.91
increased by 388.65
1 Month
5,072.25
increased by 1,038.99
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 07:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 10, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.28 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1326 | 4.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8487 | 57.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0374 | 1.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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