V-Lab
Commercial Bancgroup Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
4,317.74
increased by 1.87
1 Week
4,174.04
decreased by 141.83
1 Month
4,578.83
increased by 262.96
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 2, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 151 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.06 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9593 | 81.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0722 | 2.34** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
151 days
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