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Commercial Bancgroup Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

4,317.74

increased by 1.87

1 Week

4,174.04

decreased by 141.83

1 Month

4,578.83

increased by 262.96

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Commercial Bancgroup Inc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 2, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 151 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.06
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9593
81.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0722
2.34**

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

151 days