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Cabaletta Bio Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

7,038.84

increased by 14.08

1 Week

6,792.00

decreased by 232.76

1 Month

4,692.43

decreased by 2,332.33

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Cabaletta Bio Inc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 25, 2019 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 64% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~693147 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 64% more after negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.21
αARCH0.1091
4.61***
βGARCH0.8558
63.20***
γleverage0.0701
2.13**

1.000

Persistence

693147d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1091
4.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8558
63.20***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0701
2.13**

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days