Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
7,976.74
increased by 2,633.39
1 Week
5,955.25
increased by 611.90
1 Month
8,423.66
increased by 3,080.31
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.04 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0504 | 1.52 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9112 | 108.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0768 | 1.45 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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