Analyst Investment Management Services ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Sunday, July 12th, 2026
1 Day
4,264.08
1 Week
3,063.06
1 Month
3,420.35
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2002 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0450 | 0.89 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9180 | 262.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0029 | 0.03 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.2810 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9999 | 0.83 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0001 | 0.09 |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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