V-Lab
Kyowa Engineering Consultants Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
4,601.31
1 Week
4,914.79
1 Month
6,995.86
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 12:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 39 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 39 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 111 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1101 | 1.71* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8946 | 369.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0449 | -0.37 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.4491 | 4.07*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9987 | 307.29*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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