Star Flyer Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
4,558.80
1 Week
6,254.69
1 Month
4,110.24
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 21, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1718 | 0.92 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7816 | 172.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1718 | -0.47 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 1.72* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3144 | 2.29** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6674 | 3.13*** |
Persistence:
0.867
Half-life:
5 days
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