786 Investments Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
10,613.33
1 Week
6,275.23
1 Month
6,098.07
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 08:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 23, 2013 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 394 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2128 | 2.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8364 | 104.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1019 | -0.76 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9976 | 493.14*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
394 days
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