V-Lab
Hushan Autoparts Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
9,029.36
1 Week
6,425.33
1 Month
4,746.82
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2024 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 34657 trading days (~137.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 165% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3036 | 8.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4464 | 8.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 6.72*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 9.9973 | 1.03 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 1.34 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
34657 days
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